I Have No Wins and I Must Draft (Part 9)

(I Have No Wins and I Must Draft is our ongoing series that follows the 2025 NFL draft order and the players projected to be taken at the beginning of that draft. You can find all the previous parts, as well as a few supplemental articles about the 2025 NFL Draft here)

To the dismay of many, the Kansas City Chiefs narrowly defeated the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Championship just a few hours after the Philadelphia Eagles blew out the Washington Commanders in the NFC Championship. The Commanders will receive the 29th pick in the draft and the Bills will pick 30th. The Eagles and Chiefs will meet in Super Bowl LIX on February 9th, with the loser of that game receiving the 31st pick and while the winner will get the 32nd pick. 

With 85 days left until the Draft Weekend, here is how we think picks #21 to #25 will shake out:

Pick #21: Pittsburgh Steelers

Despite ending the regular season with a 4 game losing streak, the Steelers wound up with a record of 10-7 and a wildcard spot before being promptly sent home with a 28-14 loss to the Ravens in the first round. It has been 8 years since the Steelers last won a playoff game, and they are 0-5 in the playoffs since then. The Pittsburgh faithful are getting restless after years of watching a great defense bail out an uninspiring offense all through the regular season with no postseason success to speak of. While it might benefit them to take another swing at drafting a quarterback, this class is too thin to find one who is pro-ready with the 21st pick. Instead, Omar Khan and Mike Tomlin should be looking for a receiver. George Pickens, while very talented, might not be worth the headaches much longer. Even if they do decide to stick with him long-term, a solid WR2 to spread the defense out would go a long ways toward letting him develop into an even better player, regardless of who is throwing him the ball. Pittsburgh has an excellent track record of drafting receivers, and this feels like the time to do it again. They will probably take Emeka Egbuka from Ohio State or Matthew Golden from Texas with this pick.

Pick #22: Los Angeles Chargers

Under new head coach Jim Harbaugh, the Chargers had their best season in years. They finished 11-6 and seemed to have a ton of momentum heading into the postseason, with their final three games being a 34-27 win over the Broncos, a 40-7 win in New England, and a 34-20 win in Las Vegas. Once the playoffs arrived, however, they quickly imploded with a 32-12 loss to the Texans in the first round. While Justin Herbert's interceptions got much of the focus, the 429 total yards of offense they allowed to the Texans was the bigger problem. The Chargers would like to add a new receiving threat for Justin Herbert here, but the ones they want won't be available unless they are willing to trade up. They'll resort to the best player available here instead, which will likely be on the defensive side. Look for someone like James Pearce Jr. from Tennessee, Shemar Stewart from Texas A&M, or Derrick Harmon from Oregon to be selected with pick #22.

Pick #23: Green Bay Packers

The Packers looked like they might have been poised for a playoff run back around the end of December, but a Week 17 loss to the Vikings followed by a Week 18 loss to the Bears seemed to kill their momentum. Both games were only 2 point losses at a time where the NFC playoff spots were still very much up in the air, and there seemed to be very little energy left on the team when they got turned away in the Wildcard round with a 22-10 loss in Philadelphia. As they move into Matt LaFleur's 7th year as head coach and Brian Gutekunst's 8th year as general manager, they need to focus on improving the roster in the most impactful way. Taking a defensive player could go a long way toward doing that. Don't be surprised if this pick ends up any of the three players listed for the Chargers, depending on who is still available: James Pearce Jr., Shemar Stewart or Derrick Harmon.

Pick #24: Minnesota Vikings

The insanity that followed this Vikings team will not soon be forgotten. They ripped off a 5 game winning streak to start the year, lost to the Lions, then lost to the Rams, won their next 9 games in a row, lost to the Lions again in the regular season finale and then lost to the Rams again in the wildcard round. Sam Darnold looked amazing for most of the year, but those last two performances were enough to make even the most devoted Darnold fans think the team will probably be moving on next season. How they plan to do so is still undetermined, but this looks to be J.J. McCarthy's team until further notice. Head coach Kevin O'Connell just got a massive 5 year extension for his efforts this season, so he and general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah are both likely to be sticking around for a long time. They will probably look to address the team's biggest weakness with this draft pick, and for the moment that weakness looks to be their pass defense. Minnesota had a very good defense overall, but that was primarily due to an excellent run defense that covered up a lack of talent in the secondary a bit. This pick would be well spent on a cornerback like Benjamin Morrison from Notre Dame or Shavon Revel Jr. from East Carolina.

Pick #25: Houston Texans

Like every other team in the AFC, the Texans found themselves on the wrong end of the Chiefs' march to the Super Bowl when they lost in the Divisional Round 23-14. DeMeco Ryans' second season was eerily similar to his first: in both 2023 and 2024, the Texans went 10-7, won their first playoff game but lost their second. Still, some playoff success is better than no playoff success so we can expect coach Ryans and his general manager Nick Caserio to be running this team together for the foreseeable future. This isn't a team with a lot of holes, but they do need to tighten up their run defense. They allowed 3.5 rushing yards per attempt to opponents this season, which was 29th in the league. This translated to 1,643 rushing yards allowed (22nd) and 19 rushing touchdowns allowed (23rd), which was easily the weaker half of their defense. A solid interior defensive lineman could be the trick to turning that around. If a player like Shemar Stewart from Texas A&M is still here, Houston needs to take him. If not, Derrick Harmon from Oregon can be just as good.

The final installment of I Have No Wins and I Must Draft will be coming out later this week. A few of the picks in previous installments will be revisited soon because teams have hired a new head coach, general manager, or both since we first tried to predict their picks, but all of that will be coming out before the Super Bowl. Check back here all off-season for draft coverage.