Let's Be Fair to the Falcons

    Many people laughed at the Atlanta Falcons last April when they used their first round pick, the 8th overall pick in the draft, on quarterback Michael Penix Jr. The move was puzzling because the Falcons were not believed to be in the market for a quarterback at that time, seeing as they had just signed Kirk Cousins to a 4 year, $180 million contract. There were also very few draft experts who had Penix that high up on their boards to see him as being worth a top 10 pick. It was a deep class for QBs and most experts considered Penix as the 5th or 6th best QB prospect at the time. Using a top 10 pick on a QB that was widely considered an early 2nd round talent seemed like a colossal mistake on draft night.

    And yet here we are, just 14 regular season games later, and it looks like their decision to draft a QB just might have been the right one. The Kirk Cousins era in Atlanta has already come to an end. Falcons head coach Raheem Morris announced on Thursday that Penix would be the starting quarterback moving forward, and Adam Schefter reported on Saturday morning that the team would very likely have to release Cousins this offseason. Cousins has a full no-trade clause in his contract and is due a $10 million roster bonus on March 17th. At this point, we have no evidence to suggest Cousins is capable of earning his starting job back, and no reason to think he would waive his no-trade clause when the alternative is hitting free agency again during an offseason cycle that looks to have a pretty thin QB class.

    For Falcons fans, the Kirk Cousins experience was a short roller coaster. Through the first four games of 2024, everything was definitively mediocre. The team went 2-2 with Cousins averaging 216 yards, one TD and one interception per game. Then in Week 5 he exploded for 509 yards and 4 TDs on the way to an overtime win against the Buccaneers. The next two games were a sharp drop back to mediocrity, beating the Panthers and losing to the Seahawks with stat lines that looked almost exactly like the first month of the season. Then in Week 8, Cousins got to play the Buccaneers again and threw for 276 yards and 4 TDs to beat the Buccaneers a second time. He followed that performance with a 222 yard, 3 TD game against Dallas and for a brief moment in time, it seemed like he and the Falcons had finally gotten back on track. They improved to 6-3 on the year following that win over the Cowboys on November 3rd.

    The next 5 games are what cost Cousins his job. Against the Saints, Broncos, and Chargers he put up a combined 0 TDs and 6 interceptions. 3 straight losses to get them right back to 6-6. The next week was supposed to be his revenge game against the Vikings, but he threw two more interceptions in Minnesota and failed to score any points for the fourth week in a row. He finally found the end zone last Monday in Las Vegas as they narrowly beat the Raiders 15-9, but added another interception to make it a total of 9 interceptions in the last 5 games, and 16 interceptions on the season. Three days later, he was benched.

    Penix will get to make his debut in arguably the best possible scenario - at home against the worst team in football, the 2-12 New York Giants. Although it would be nearly impossible for the Falcons to earn a wild card spot in the playoffs at this point, their 7-7 record only actually puts them one game out of first place in the division. Ironically, they can thank Kirk Cousins for this because the Buccaneers that he dismantled twice are currently leading the NFC South at 8-6. The Buccaneers have a pretty easy schedule to close out the season, but crazier things have happened.

    What's really intriguing about this move is that we might finally get an answer to the question "Are the Falcons really a QB away from being a good team?". It's something we've speculated about for a long time, but it seems like Atlanta had a very clear roster-building strategy at work over the past few seasons. Here is a very quick rundown of how the Falcons have spent their high draft capital (first 3 rounds of picks) on offensive players over the last 6 years:

• WR Calvin Ridley (1st round, 2018)
• G Chris Lindstrom (1st round, 2019)
• OT Kaleb McGary (1st round, 2019)
• C Matt Hennessy (3rd round, 2020)
• TE Kyle Pitts (1st round, 2021)
• OT Jalen Mayfield (3rd round, 2021)
• QB Desmond Ridder (3rd round, 2022)
• RB Bijan Robinson (1st round, 2023)
• OT Matthew Bergeron (2nd round, 2023)

    It seems pretty obvious to me that the Falcons have been trying for years to build up the offense until they just needed a quarterback, then they would go get their quarterback. They spent 9 picks in the first 3 rounds on offensive linemen or skill position players over the last 6 years and they hit on most of them. Ridley was later traded away while Hennessy and Mayfield didn't pan out, but all of the other players on that list are starting for the Falcons today and are generally considered good players, they just haven't had a consistently good quarterback. They might have gotten a few good games out of Matt Ryan at the end of his time in Atlanta, but they've spent much more time watching the likes of Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder, and Taylor Heinicke throwing the ball. Kirk Cousins was supposed to finally give them what they needed to succeed, but it didn't happen. 

    With Penix at the helm, the Falcons have 3 games left to try and keep their season alive. They play the Giants, Commanders, and Panthers over that stretch. Two of those are very winnable games. It's hard to go as far as to say that simply changing quarterbacks is going to turn the Falcons into a team ready to make a playoff run, but there is really no reason they can't finish the season with a winning record if Michael Penix Jr. was really good enough to be drafted 8th overall.